The Texans need a win in the worst way tomorrow against the Jaguars but they don’t match up well with them at all.  The Texans would be smart to come out passing against the Jaguars to try to get a quick lead on them and take them out of their running game on offense.  That will be easier said than done as the Texans have already allowed 8 sacks this season and Matt Schaub has thrown 5 interceptions this season.  Schaub will have to be careful when throwing the ball to WR Andre Johnson who will likely be covered all game long by Rashean Mathis.  With that in mind look for him to keep the passing game short and for him to use TE Owen Daniels and Kevin Walter a lot.  Rookie RB Steve Slaton will also get a lot of touches for the Texans and that’s a good thing for the Texans against a Jags’ defense that is allowing 108.7 yards rushing and 4.2 yards per carry this season.

The Jaguars have to be foaming at the mouth watching game film of the Texans’ run defense which is allowing 168.5 yards rushing per game and 4.6 yards per carry this season.  With that in mind look for the Texans to have to deal with a heavy dose of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew.  Look for QB David Garrard to also have his best game of the season as he should be efficient throwing the ball against mostly single coverage as the Texans will go all out to stop the Jags’ running game.

PREDICTION:  JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 27, HOUSTON TEXANS 13

The Jaguars made David Garrard a very rich man in the off season and now they need him to reward them for their confidence in him.  Garrard has completed 56 of 85 passes (65.9%) for 547 yards with 1 TD pass and 4 interceptions (68.1 QB Rating) this season and that’s just not enough to get the job done.  He is better than he’s playing right now but the Jags can’t be a playoff team unless he plays up to his ability.  Garrard also has carried the ball 11 times for 42 yards (3.8 ypc) so far this season.

The Jaguars have lost CB Scott Starks for the season due to a torn right ACL.  Starks only played in one game for the Jags this season and he didn’t make any tackles or plays.  He has played in 49 games (1 start) in his NFL career and he has made 64 tackles, defensed 5 passes and he has 2 interceptions (one of which he returned for a TD).  The Jaguars have signed CB Omare Lowe to replace Starks on the active roster.  Lowe hasn’t played in the NFL since the 2006 season with the Falcons.  He has played in 38 games (1 start) in his NFL career and he has made 42 tackles and has defensed 1 pass.  Starks is a better football player than Lowe but they likely won’t miss him too much.

The Jaguars held onto the football for an amazing 41:35 of this football game but it came down to a 51-yard FG by Josh Scobee with 4 seconds left to win this football game.  David Garrard just managed this football game as he completed 16 of 22 passes for 167 yards with a interception.  The running backs carried the Jaguars to the finish line in this game as Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew were both strong last Sunday.  Fred Taylor led the way for the Jaguars with 121 yards rushing on 26 carries (4.7 ypc).  Maurice Jones-Drew also had a very solid game with 107 yards rushing on 19 carries (5.6 ypc) and he also caught 4 passes for 59 yards (14.8 avg).  The Jaguars finished up with 236 yards rushing on 48 carries (4.9 ypc) and they also completed 16 of 22 passes for 167 yards.

The defense was shaky for the Jaguars in this game as the Colts rolled up 325 yards of total offense despite only having possession of the football for 18:25 of this game.  Safety Brian Williams (5 tackles, interception) and CB Rashean Mathis (3 tackles, 61-yard interception return for a TD) both made huge plays that helped the Jags prevail.  The Colts finished up with 114 yards rushing on 19 carries (6.0 ypc) and they also completed 15 of 29 passes for 211 yards.  This was a huge win for the Jaguars as they are now 1-2 on the season.

This is a big clash in the AFC South between two teams that are off to slow starts.  The Jaguars need to get back to the basics on offense and run the football.  The Colts are allowing 181.5 yards rushing per game and they are on the small side on the interior of the defense.  With that in mind look for Fred Taylor (67 yards rushing, 2.9 ypc) and Maurice Jones-Drew (30 yards rushing, 2.5 ypc) to each have their best games of the season as long as the Jags get some push from the offensive line.  If the Jaguars get their running game going against the Colts then they can attack them through the air with play action passing.

The Colts will likely come out throwing the ball to try to get a lead and take the Jaguars out of their offense.  The Jaguars are allowing 191.0 yards passing per game so the Colts will spread out Anthony Gonzalez, Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison and let Peyton Manning pick who to throw to.  It would really help the Colts if they could get the running game going against the Jags which will be easier said than done as the Colts are only averaging 39.0 yards per game rushing and 2.3 yards per carry.

PREDICTION:  INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 20, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 13