It’s amazing to me that the Jaguars still have a chance to make the playoffs with a win tomorrow and a lot of help from other teams.  The Jaguars are spinning out of control having lost three games in a row.  The Jaguars have not won a game in temperatures under 28 degrees since the 1994 season so they are behind the 8-ball already heading into Sunday’s showdown with a Browns’ team that is on a three game winning streak.  The Jaguars will rely heavily on Maurice Jones-Drew against a Browns’ D that is allowing 145.5 yards rushing per game and 4.5 yards per carry.  If the Jaguars are effective in getting the running game going then David Garrard will have the time needed to make some plays down the field against the Browns who are allowing 247.9 yards passing per game.

On defense the Jaguars will have to gang up on running back Jerome Harrison who has rushed for 434 yards over the last two weeks.  If the Jaguars can stop the Browns running game then they can force them to throw the ball then they can force Derek Anderson into making some mistakes which he is very good at.

PREDICTION:  BROWNS 21, JAGUARS 20

The Jaguars will have a rare sellout crowd to play in front of tonight at home against the 13-0 Colts.  The Jags only lost 14-12 against the Colts in Indianapolis earlier this season.  With DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis both banged up the Colts might decide to rest them.  If that is indeed the case, David Garrard should have a lot of time to throw the football.  The Colts are giving up 227.0 yards passing per game this season so the Jaguars will be likely throwing the ball more than usual tonight.  Still, Maurice Jones-Drew will get his touches against a Colts’ D that is allowing 110.4 yards rushing and 4.1 yards per carry this year.  Look for the Jags to score more points than usual tonight against the Colts.

The Jaguars don’t have much of a pass rush so they will likely have problems with Peyton Manning as the Colts are averaging 296.4 yards passing per game this season.  If the Colts decide to rest some starters in the 2nd half of this game the Jags’ D might dominate the rest of the game.  Back-up QB Curtis Painter of the Colts should make his NFL debut tonight and that should be great news for the Jaguars.

PREDICTION:  JAGUARS 23, COLTS 20

The Jaguars need this game to stay ahead in the run for the Wild Card Spot in the AFC.  With that in mind look for them to get the football in the best player on the teams’ hands as much as possible and that is Maurice Jones-Drew.  Jones-Drew will be facing a Dolphins’ D that is allowing 107.0 yards rushing per game and 4.1 yards per carry so he will have his work cut out for him.  That’s because they will likely be keying on him the whole game with WR Mike Sims-Walker likely out for the game with knee and calf injuries.  If the offensive line gives David Garrard time to throw the ball he could have a nice game against a Fins’ D that is allowing 242.9 yards passing per game.

The Jaguars must go all out to stop Ricky Williams as the Dolphins are averaging 150.4 yards rushing per game this season.  If the Jags can slow down the Dolphins running game and they can force Chad Henne into obvious passing downs then they should have some success on Sunday. 

PREDICTION:  DOLPHINS 23, JAGUARS 20

The Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5) are facing a pretty even opponent this week in the Houston Texans (5-6), and it should be a close game.  The Texans don’t have a particularly good defense, especially when it comes to pressuring quarterbacks, so David Garrard should have some opportunities to make some big plays.  The Texans do give up 120 rushing yards per game though, so Maurice Jones-Drew should be the first option for the Jags’ offense.  In their meeting earlier this year where the Jags won 31-24, Jones-Drew rushed for 119 yards and 3 touchdowns.

The Jaguars defense, specifically their pass defense, is not very strong.  They give up close to 250 passing yards per game and in their last game against the Texans, Matt Schaub threw for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns.  The Schaub-Andre Johnson connection has been one of the Texans’ strengths all season, so the Jags need to keep Johnson in check.  I expect a very close game, but I’m giving the Texans a slight advantage since the Jags’ pass defense is so weak and Schaub has proven he can put up some big numbers against them.

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION:  Jacksonville Jaguars 21, Houston Texans 28

The Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4) are looking for their fourth win in a row this week and will facing off against the San Francisco 49ers (4-6).  The Jaguars’ offense has been doing a good job taking care of the ball and that is the main reason they have a three game winning streak.  Quarterback David Garrard only has one interception during that streak, and if he can continue to be smart with the ball the Jaguars will have a great shot at winning this one.  Maurice Jones-Drew is going to play through a knee injury and should still be very effective against a 49ers defense that has been struggling against the run lately.  If Jones-Drew’s knee is bothering him a lot though, the Jaguars may be in some trouble.

The Jaguars’ defense needs to get some turnovers and do their best to limit running back Frank Gore.  Gore is averaging 5.4 yards per carry this season, but he doesn’t get much help from his quarterbacks.  Alex Smith has started the last five games for the Niners and has thrown at least one interception in every one.  Smith’s inconsistency will likely continue and I think this will give the Jaguars the edge.  I think the Jaguars will win the turnover battle and thus win the game because of it.

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION:  Jacksonville Jaguars 24, San Francisco 49ers 21